# Contractor backlog fell to 8.1 months. What it means for COIs

> Backlog fell sharply in October, and the drop was concentrated among contractors without data center work. Thinner pipelines change who bids on your jobs.

Published Nov 11, 2026 by Forsured. Market outlook. Source: https://forsured.ai/blog/contractor-backlog-october-2026/

![8.1 mo: ABC Construction Backlog Indicator, October 2026, down 0.6 months from September](https://forsured.ai/blog/contractor-backlog-october-2026/hero.png)

## The short version

- ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator fell to 8.1 months in October 2026, down 0.6 months from September and 0.3 months from a year earlier.
- The drop came from contractors without data center work. Their backlog fell from 8.3 to 7.6 months, while contractors with data center work rose from 11.3 to 11.5 months.
- Infrastructure backlog fell to 8.7 months, its lowest since May 2025. Profit margin expectations improved, but sales and staffing expectations fell.
- When backlog thins, more contractors bid on work outside their usual size or scope. Check that each contractor COI meets this project's requirements, not the contractor's last job's.

Contractor backlog fell sharply in October. Associated Builders and Contractors reported Nov. 10 that its Construction Backlog Indicator dropped to 8.1 months, down 0.6 months from September and 0.3 months from October 2025. For owners and GCs, a thinner pipeline means more contractors chasing each job, and that's worth a closer look at the COIs that come with the bids.

## What ABC reported

"Backlog fell sharply in October, returning to levels not consistently observed since last winter," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.

The split behind the number is stark:

| Group | September | October |
| --- | --- | --- |
| All contractors | 8.7 months | 8.1 months |
| Contractors without data center work (88%) | 8.3 months | 7.6 months |
| Contractors with data center work | 11.3 months | 11.5 months |

ABC notes that most contractors doing data center work have more than $100 million in annual revenue. By category, infrastructure backlog fell to 8.7 months, the lowest since May 2025, while heavy industrial backlog rose to a 15-month high.

The Construction Confidence Index was mixed. Profit margin expectations improved, while sales and staffing expectations fell. All three readings stayed above 50, the level ABC says signals expected growth over the next six months. Even so, Basu noted that "roughly 1 in 4 contractors still expect their margins to shrink over the next six months," citing recent increases in materials prices and borrowing costs.

## Why it matters for contractor COIs

When backlog shrinks, contractors widen their search for work. That can mean bidding on projects larger than their usual jobs, in a new sector, or in a new state.

Their insurance was usually bought for the work they normally do. A program that fit a $10 million job can fall short on a $50 million one:

- **Limits.** Umbrella and excess limits may sit below what a larger project requires.
- **Aggregates.** A general aggregate shared across more jobs runs thinner. A [per project aggregate](https://forsured.ai/blog/per-project-aggregate-coi/) keeps yours separate.
- **Endorsements.** Additional insured, [completed operations](https://forsured.ai/blog/completed-operations-additional-insured/) and waiver wording may not match the new project's contract.

None of that shows up in a backlog number. It shows up when you read each contractor COI against the project requirements for the job in front of you, not the contractor's last one.

Forsured checks every contractor COI against your project requirements and flags the gaps, so a competitive bid market doesn't bring a coverage gap with it.

## About Forsured

Forsured is construction insurance compliance software for general contractors and the brokers who insure their trade contractors. You set each project's insurance requirements once. Forsured reads every contractor COI and endorsement against them, flags each gap with the reason, and keeps checking through renewals until the job is done.

- Project requirements with exceptions, not one template for every job
- Endorsement review (additional insured, waiver of subrogation, primary and noncontributory), not just the certificate
- A shared workspace where the contractor's broker sees exactly what's missing
- A person on your team approves every result, with a full review history

> "What stood out to us is that Forsured doesn't just organize the paperwork. It helps us understand what meets the project requirements, what needs attention, and what needs to happen next. That clarity across the GC, subcontractor, and broker is where we see the real value." -- Stephanie Massei, Milestone Construction

Free COI risk check: send one project's requirements and a contractor COI or two, and we'll show you every gap we find. https://forsured.ai/#demo

## Common questions

### What is ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator?

It's a monthly measure from Associated Builders and Contractors of how many months of work its member contractors have under contract. ABC bases it on a member survey; October's ran Oct. 20 to Nov. 3, 2026.

### Why did backlog fall in October 2026?

ABC's numbers show the decline among contractors without data center work, about 88% of respondents, whose backlog fell from 8.3 to 7.6 months. Contractors with data center work, most with more than $100 million in annual revenue, saw backlog rise.

### What does a falling backlog have to do with COIs?

Contractors with thinner pipelines bid more widely, including on larger jobs than they usually take. Their insurance was bought for their usual work, so limits, endorsements and per project aggregates may fall short of a bigger project's requirements.

## Sources

1. [ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator Drops in October](https://www.abc.org/News-Media/News-Releases/abcs-construction-backlog-indicator-drops-in-october), Associated Builders and Contractors, Nov 10, 2026

General information, not legal or insurance advice. Forsured is a software company, not a law firm or a licensed insurance agency. Confirm anything you'll rely on with your broker or attorney.

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Forsured: construction insurance compliance software. https://forsured.ai · hello@forsured.ai